Science: Increased risk of red meat diet

The hamburger’s international popularity demonstrates the larger globalization of food — Photo by Beau96080 at Wikipedia Commons, (Public Domain)

The typical U.S. resident eats three hamburgers a week. Yet U.S. citzens shopping for ground beef, New York strips, or sirloin in 2025 are paying for that carnivore’s craving through extreme sticker shock as prices continue to climb upwards.

“We are in the middle of a classic cattle cycle downturn,” states agribusiness expert Mario Ortez Amador, in a statement sent to Digital Journal. “U.S. beef production is declining because the national herd has shrunk to its lowest levels in decades.” 

Economics expert David Bieri concurs with this observation: “Tariffs are playing a secondary but important role in beef pricing that consumers are seeing right now, with the impact becoming more pronounced in recent months,” Bieri notes.  

Despite red meat carrying ill-health effects, the implications carry concerns for the U.S. economy.

Health risks associated with red meat consumption

• Increased Cancer Risk: High levels of red meat consumption are linked to a higher risk of various cancers, including breast, colorectal, and lung cancer. 
• Cardiovascular Disease: One daily serving of unprocessed red meat is associated with a 13% increased risk of death from cardiovascular disease or cancer. 
• Overall Mortality: Processed red meat consumption is linked to a 20% increased risk of death from cardiovascular disease or cancer. 
• Chronic Diseases: Lowering red meat consumption can reduce the risk of heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and premature death, according to global health organizations. 
• Consumption Recommendations: For cancer prevention, it is recommended to consume no more than 18 ounces of red meat per week. These findings highlight the potential health risks of red meat and suggest moderation in consumption.

What is driving the reduction in beef production in the U.S.?  

“Incentivized by high cattle prices and high input costs, many ranchers reduced their breeding herds — both by culling older cows and by selling heifers that otherwise could have been kept for breeding. The result is fewer calves coming through the pipeline,” agribusiness expert Mario Ortez Amador tells Digital Journal.

Mario Ortez Amador is a collegiate assistant professor of agribusiness and entrepreneurship in the Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.

“Because it takes about 18-24 months for a calf to reach slaughter weight, production is relatively unresponsive to price signals in the short run. Even though beef prices are high, it takes time for producers to rebuild the herd and bring more beef into the market. This is a classic feature of food production, crops take time to grow, livestock does too.”  

“Incentives also matter,” Ortez clarifies. “With cattle prices at record highs, ranchers often prefer to capitalize on today’s market rather than wait years for future returns. In economics we say a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow — and that mindset reinforces the short-term liquidation of cattle rather than long-term herd expansion.”

Meat is a source of protein, vitamins and minerals in a diet (although there are vegetarian alternatives). However, it is recommended that people do not eat too much red, processed or fatty meat.

To what degree are tariffs playing a role in pricing consumers see right now?

“The primary factor driving record-high beef prices is a severe supply shortage — by some metrics, the U.S. cattle herd is at its smallest level since 1951 — because of multiyear droughts that increased feed costs, so ranchers are selling cattle rather than breed them,” Ortez notes “Tariffs are adding to this supply pressure, above all the 50 percent tariff on Brazilian imports since Aug. 1, affecting Brazil’s roughly one quarter share of all U.S. beef imports.”

What would it take to see beef prices return to more affordable levels?

“On the demand side, beef demand has been remarkably resilient,” Ortez indicates. “Despite higher retail prices, consumers continue to value beef strongly in their diets. When you put constrained supply together with steady demand, you get the record beef prices we’re seeing today.

“Prices will only ease once the national herd begins to rebuild. That process starts when producers stop liquidating cows and begin retaining more heifers for breeding. But those heifers won’t calve for two years, and the resulting calf will take another 18 months to reach market weight. That means it could be several years before supplies increase enough to meaningfully pressure prices downward,” Ortez suggests.